October 2023 Market Summary
In October, those following the real estate market in Ottawa once again found themselves perplexed, continuing a trend that has persisted throughout 2023. Despite all indicators pointing towards a buyer's market, prices stayed fairly steady. What stood out was the remarkably low number of home sales last month, marking the slowest October in over a decade.
Let's take a look at some of the core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.
Number of Home Sales
| Total last month | vs Previous Month | vs Same Month Last Year | vs 5-Year Average |
Residential | 933 | -15.7% | -5.6% | -39.5% |
Freehold | 711 | -16.9% | -6.2% | -39.7% |
Condo | 222 | -11.6% | - 3.5% | -38.9% |
* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.
In October, the Ottawa real estate market saw a continuation of the slow fall season we have experienced this year, with sales volume dropping by nearly 16% compared to the previous month. This marked the slowest month since last February, and with only 933 total sales, it was the slowest October ever recorded by the board since it started tracking this statistic using the MLS in 2013.
The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018. NEW: you can now toggle between separate tabs for Residential and Condo sales.
Average Sale Prices (year-over-year)
| Average Last Month | vs Previous Month | vs Same Month Last Year | vs 5-Year Average |
Residential | $645,293 | -2.1% | +3.3% | +21.0% |
Freehold | $708,981 | -2.1% | -4.2% | +20.9% |
Condo | $441,317 | +1.0% | -0.7% | +21.7% |
In October, average prices continued to fluctuate around the mid-$600k mark, experiencing a 2% decrease compared to the previous month. Despite this dip, average housing costs remained higher than the same period last year and were 21% higher than the 5-year rolling average. While future conditions in our marketplace remain highly unpredictable, it is noteworthy that prices in Ottawa have shown remarkable responsiveness to interest rate announcements from the Bank of Canada (BoC) so we anticipate prices to remain relatively stable during the upcoming slow winter months following the second consecutive pause in rates hikes.
The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018. NEW: you can now toggle between separate tabs for Residential and Condo sales.
Active Listings by Month
At the end of October, there were 3,955 homes available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 131-unit increase from the previous month. Inventory has now returned to the pre-pandemic levels we saw in the Fall of 2018.
As inventory levels continue to rise, would-be buyers could be well-served by keeping their attention on the options available. There are likely to be good opportunities this winter for properties that remain listed.
The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.
Cumulative Days on Market
Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property is conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.
Last month, a home took 49 days to sell, on average. This number is up from September when homes sold in 45 days.
CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.
A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.
A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.
In October 2023, there were 4.2 months of inventory available in our marketplace. This is up from last month when we had roughly 3.5 months of inventory available. At this level, months of inventory is the highest it has been since January of 2018 signaling a significant shift towards balance in our marketplace.
MOI data since 2014 can be found in the chart below. NEW: you can now toggle between separate tabs for Freehold and Condos.
What This Means for You
It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!
Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.
* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.
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