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  • Writer's pictureThomas Desjardins

September 2023: Ottawa Real Estate Market Update

Updated: Nov 1, 2023



September 2023 Market Summary


Last month, sales volume slowed relative to the numbers we saw this time last year, while average prices rose from both a month-over-month and year-over-year perspective. The number of active listings available continued to increase and the amount of time it took to sell a house also rose. Months of inventory ("MOI") also increased for the 4th consecutive month as the market continues to trend towards balance.


Let's take a look at some of the core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.


Number of Home Sales

Total last month

vs Previous Month

vs Same Month Last Year

​vs 5-Year Average

​Residential

1,107

-7.0%

+2.1%

-30.0%

​Freehold

865

-4.4%

+4.4%

-28.0%

Condo

251

-14.9%

- 4.9%

-36.1%

* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.


Last month, 2.1% more homes were sold in Ottawa as compared to September of last year. This was led by the freehold segment which saw 4.4% more sales than last year, while condos saw a dip of roughly 4.9%. From a short-term perspective, September slowed relative to August by roughly 7%, which is usual for this time of year. We normally see our second-highest sales volume during fall, but this year seems to be an outlier. Ottawa's slow housing market in 2023 continues, with sales 30% below the 5-year average for September.


The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018. Note that you can now toggle between separate tabs for Residential and Condo sales.



Average Sale Prices (year-over-year)

Average Last Month

vs Previous Month

vs Same Month Last Year

vs 5-Year Average

Residential

$659,003

+3.0%

+2.2%

+22.4%

Freehold

$724,155

+1.9%

+2.5%

+22.1%

Condo

$436,810

+2.5%

-3.5%

+18.1%

While the pace of sales slowed through 2023, the average sale price remains significantly higher than the 5-year rolling average. Average prices rose slightly in September compared to this month last year, while month-over-month prices also rose by 3%. Despite a turbulent year, the average sale price for Ottawa homes is 9% higher than at the beginning of 2023.


The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018. Note that you can now toggle between separate tabs for Residential and Condo sales.



Active Listings by Month


At the end of July, there were 3,824 homes available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 369-unit increase from the previous month. Inventory has now returned to the pre-pandemic levels we saw in the Fall of 2018.


The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.



Cumulative Days on Market


Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property is conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.


Last month, a home took 45 days to sell, on average. This number is up from August when homes sold in 43 days.


CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.



Months of Inventory


The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.

  • A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.

  • A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.

  • A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.

In September 2023, there were 3.5 months of inventory available in our marketplace. This is up from last month when we had roughly 2.9 months of inventory available. Slow buyer activity was the main factor in this shift in the balance between supply and demand. We normally see more homes listed in the fall with a coincidental increase in buyer activity, but the latter doesn't appear to have materialized this year.


MOI data since 2014 can be found in the chart below. Note that you can now toggle between separate tabs for Freehold and Condos.




What This Means for You


It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!


Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.


* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.



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