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  • Writer's pictureThomas Desjardins

October 2022 Ottawa Real Estate Market Update



The Ottawa Real Estate Market in Context

Fall has arrived, and the Ottawa real estate market continues to shift towards balance. Let's take a look at some core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for October.


Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)



* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.


The pace of home sales last month remained significantly lower versus October of last year, as demand continued to fall. With winter around the corner, we can expect the market to remain subdued over the next 60 days or so. While fewer listing are typically brought to market during the months of November and December, these months are often a good opportunity for buyers since sellers with active listings are often especially motivated to sell. The graph below shows monthly sold unit data over the last four years which is useful in providing context to current Ottawa market conditions.



Overall Prices (Year-Over-Year)



* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.


Prices in October fell below year-over-year figures for the first time in over 5 years, though only by a thin margin. Condo represent a conspicuous outlier with an increase over last year of 9%. Month-over-month, residential sales also fell compared to September, by 3.13%. The table below shows month-over-month price change data for 2022 to-date. The subsequent graph shows monthly average sale price data since the beginning of 2019, grouped by calendar year.

Month (2022)

Price

% Change

January

$680,276

10.92%

February

$750,496

10.32%

March

$758,969

1.13%

April

$739,583

-2.55%

May

$718,998

-2.78%

June

$686,752

-4.48%

July

$649,602

-5.41%

August

$635,982

-2.10%

September

$644,905

1.40%

October

$624,692

-3.13%



Days on Market

The term "days on market" refers to the number of days that a home is listed for sale before it is purchased.


Last month, a home took 29 days to sell, on average. This October figure represents an increase since this time last year, when homes sold in 19 days. Days on market averages since 2019 can be found in the table below. As you can see, homes are selling at slightly quicker than pre-pandemic rates.


Months of Inventory

The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is a core indicator of whether we are in a buyer’s, seller’s, or balanced market. In general, it describes how many buyers exist for the current number of listings. It is calculated by taking the amount of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. Market characterization is as follows:

  • A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.

  • A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.

  • A buyer's market more than 6 months of inventory.

In October 2022, residential-class properties increased to 3.3 months from 1 months in 2021. Condominium-class properties increased to 3 months from 1.2 months in 2021. Ottawa remains a seller's market for the time being.


Historical Average Home Prices in Ottawa (1956-2021)

A review of historical sales data for the last 60+ years helps illuminate the present situation in Ottawa's housing market. Cumulative record-setting years of appreciation have resulted in a rapid escalation in house prices, so the current correction is not unexpected, independent of interest rate increases.



What This Means for You

It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, please feel free to get in touch.


* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.



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