November 2023 Market Summary
Sales remained slower than usual for this time of year while following the usual seasonal deceleration that we typically see in the month of November
Prices fell in November as compared to October, but they remained slightly higher than this time last year
Despite sticky prices in 2023, this year is likely to be the first time in 27 years that we will see a downtrend in the overall annual average price compared to last year
Total active listings declined as unmotivated sellers canceled their listings and fewer homes were brought to market with the holidays approaching
Supply versus demand continues to shift in favour of buyers
Factors influencing market activity include increased cost of living, high interest rates, and comparatively low inventory.
Read on to explore the most recent numbers for November.
Number of Home Sales
Total last month
vs Previous Month
vs Same Month Last Year
vs 5-Year Average*
* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.
** Based on the 5-year average for the month covered in this report.
Last month confirmed that the real estate market has gone into hibernation early this year. In November, 823 homes sold, which places us roughly 36% behind the 5-year average for sales volume. Condos were an outliner, outpacing last November's volume by a narrow margin of 10 condo sales.
The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018.
Average Sale Prices (year-over-year)
Average Last Month
vs Previous Month
vs Same Month Last Year
vs 5-Year Average
Average prices continued to fluctuate around the mid-$600k mark in November, representing a 3.2% decrease as compared to October. Despite slow trade volume, prices have remained slightly higher on a year-over-year basis since the summer, and they remained 18% higher than the 5-year rolling average for November.
While year-over-year (i.e. November 2023 vs. November 2022) numbers remain positive, Ottawa's housing market appears poised to see its first recession in annualized average home values since 1996. Year-to-date figures suggest the overall average price for homes in 2023 will land somewhere around $650,000, which is roughly 5% behind the overall annual average for 2022. This is largely because average prices hit their peak in Q1 of 2022, which inflated the annual average last year.
The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018.
Active Listings by Month
At the end of November, 3,612 homes were available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 340-unit decrease from the previous month. Falling inventory is normal for this time of year because many sellers suspend or cancel their listings and fewer new properties are listed for sale leading up to the holidays. Despite the decrease in active listings, 20% more homes are still available as compared to this time last year, so buyers would do well to keep an eye on the market while fewer buyers are active and while many sellers are motivated to sell.
The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.
Cumulative Days on Market
Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property is conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.
Last month, a home took 56 days to sell, on average. This number is up from September when homes sold in 49 days.
CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.
A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.
A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.
In October 2023, there were 4.4 months of inventory available in our marketplace. This is up from last month when we had roughly 4.2 months of inventory available. This is the first time Ottawa has had back-to-back months in a "balanced market" since 2017.
MOI data since 2014 can be found in the chart below.
What This Means for You
It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!
Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.
* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.