Ottawa Real Estate Market in Context
Data from May revealed a continuation of the trend we saw in the first half of 2023, albeit with less dramatic changes. Sales volume experienced its fifth consecutive monthly increase, positioning us in positive territory when compared to the previous year. Average prices remained relatively stable on a month-to-month basis, while the year-over-year average continued to converge. Although the number of homes available for sale saw a slight uptick, the time required to sell continued to decrease. Moreover, the months of inventory (MOI) maintained a downward trajectory, solidifying our position in a seller's market.
Let's take a look at some of the core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.
Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)
Residential unit sales: 1,941 (+4.8%)
Freehold unit sales: 1,475 (+6.4%)
Condo unit sales: 466 (0.00%)
* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.
Market activity has continued to accelerate through the spring months of this year. In fact, May was the first time that we have seen growth in year-over-year total sales since March of 2022.
The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018.
Average Sale Prices
Residential properties: $672,055 (-6.5%)
Freehold properties: $744,282 (-7.2%)
Condo properties: $442,644 (-6.3%)
Average prices fell slightly (-1.06%) relative to last month, though the gap in year-over-year average sale prices has continued to narrow.
The table below shows month-over-month price change data for the last 12 months. The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018.
Month | Price | % Change |
May 2022 | $718,998 | -2.78% |
June | $686,752 | -4.48% |
July | $649,602 | -5.41% |
August | $635,982 | -2.10% |
September | $644,905 | 1.40% |
October | $624,692 | -3.13% |
November | $620,889 | -0.61% |
December | $605,282 | -2.51% |
January 2023 | $611,504 | 1.03% |
February | $632,906 | 3.60% |
March | $635,492 | 0.41% |
April | $679,239 | 6.88% |
May 2023 | $672,055 | -1.06% |
Active Listings by Month
At the end of March, there were 2,946 homes available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 232-unit increase from the previous month.
The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.
Cumulative Days on Market
Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property spends conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.
Last month, a home took 36 days to sell, on average. This number is down from March when homes sold in 42 days. CDOM has now fallen by 34 days since the peak in January.
CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.
A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.
A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.
In May 2023, the buying vs listing balance continued to shift from its peak of 3.9 MOI in December to 1.5 months of inventory available last month. While supply is less constrained than a year ago, the last five months have seen the market sway quickly back in favour of sellers. As a result, bidding wars have returned in certain areas of the market where attractive available listings are particularly hard to come by.
This is illustrated in the chart below, which shows MOI data by month since 2014.
What This Means for You
It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!
Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.
* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.
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