July 2023 Market Summary
Last month, sales volume continued to outpace the numbers we saw this time last year, but remained slower than the five-year average for the month of July. Average prices continued to show stability on a month-to-month basis, while year-over-year prices have now leapfrogged the average sale price from July of last year. The number of active listings continued to increase and the average amount of time it took to sell a house also rose from both a month-over-month and year-over-year perspective. Months of inventory ("MOI") expanded slightly, though for the time being we remain in a seller's market.
Let's take a look at some of the core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.
Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)
Residential unit sales: 1,261 (+14.5%)
Freehold unit sales: 979 (+17.0%)
Condo unit sales: 282 (+6.8%)
* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.
Last month, 14.5% more homes were sold in Ottawa as compared to July of last year. This increase is not surprising given that we have now caught up to the market shock we experienced from rate hikes in the early part of 2022. In the short-term, July slowed relative to June by roughly 24%, which is typical for this time of year since many folks are on vacation and therefore take a break from house shopping.
The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018.
Average Sale Prices
Residential properties: $680,322 (+1.4%)
Freehold properties: $751,767 (+4.3%)
Condo properties: $432,293 (+2.0%)
Average prices rose slightly in July compared to the previous month (+1.4%), while average prices exceeded last year's average (year-over-year) for the first time in 12 months. Again, this is likely due to more optimistic market conditions this year in the absence of large increases in variable mortgage rates. The impact of the 25 basis point increase in July will become clearer in the coming weeks.
The table below shows month-over-month price change data for the last 12 months. The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018.
Month | Price | % Change |
July 2022 | $649,602 | -5.41% |
August | $635,982 | -2.10% |
September | $644,905 | 1.40% |
October | $624,692 | -3.13% |
November | $620,889 | -0.61% |
December | $605,282 | -2.51% |
January 2023 | $611,504 | 1.03% |
February | $632,906 | 3.60% |
March | $635,492 | 0.41% |
April | $679,239 | 6.88% |
May | $672,055 | -1.06% |
June | $671,212 | -0.13% |
July 2023 | $680,322 | +1.36% |
Active Listings by Month
At the end of July, there were 3,348 homes available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 229-unit increase from the previous month. Notably, this is greatest amount of available inventory since September of 2022.
The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.
Cumulative Days on Market
Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property spends conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.
Last month, a home took 38 days to sell, on average. This number is up from June when homes sold in 34 days.
CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.
A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.
A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.
In June 2023, there were 2.7 months of inventory available in our marketplace. Slow buyer activity is the main cause of this shift in the balance between supply and demand, but we expect this to stabilize in the Fall when buyers return from vacation.
This is illustrated in the chart below, which shows MOI data by month since 2014.
What This Means for You
It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!
Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.
* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.
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