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  • Writer's pictureThomas Desjardins

January 2024 | Ottawa Real Estate Market Update



January 2024 Market Summary


  • Sales accelerated through January as buyers resumed their home searches following the holiday season

  • Median prices remained relatively stable which continues the trend we have seen since mid-2022

  • Total active listings also remained flat, though we expect supply to increase as spring approaches

  • An increase in buyer traffic in January and a negligible increase in new listings pushed the supply and demand ratio slightly in favour of sellers


Notable Update in This Report


We've made a small (but meaningful) change this month by replacing average sale prices and days on the market data with median values. Medians provide a more accurate picture of our real estate market since they eliminate outliers, which can greatly impact the overall picture. This is especially true in the condo segment which sees fewer sales on a month-to-month basis.


Read on to explore the numbers for January.


Number of Home Sales

Total last month

vs Previous Month

vs Same Month Last Year

​vs 5-Year Average*

​Residential

711

+12.1%

+15.6%

-14.8%

​Freehold

543

+12.4%

+17.0%

-9.8%

Condo

168

+11.3%

+11.3%

-27.6%

* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.

** Based on the 5-year average for the month covered in this report.


Members of the Ottawa board sold a total of 711 properties last month, which is 16% above this time last year. Economists generally expect sales volume to increase this year versus 2023 so we shall see if this uptick in sales volume persists.


The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018.



Median Sale Prices (year-over-year)

Median Last Month

vs Previous Month

vs Same Month Last Year

vs 5-Year Average

Residential

$585,000

-1.7%

+0.9%

+12.4%

Freehold

$681,564

-0.5%

+2.8%

+10.7%

Condo

$431,030

-0.6%

0.0%

+10.2%

The median sale price of a home in Ottawa remained relatively stable month-over-month in January continuing a trend we have seen for the last 18 months. Median prices have hovered around $600k since mid-2022, but things may change if we see significant adjustments to interest rates in the next 12 months.


The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018.



Active Listings by Month


At the end of January, 2,585 homes were available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 47-unit increase from the previous month. This represents a 2% increase over last month and a 12% increase over January of last year. We should see more homes listed for sale as we approach the spring selling season.


The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.



Cumulative Days on Market (Median)


Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property is conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.


Last month, a home took a median of 65 days to sell. This number is up from December when homes sold in 52 days.


Median CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.



Months of Inventory


The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.


In January, there were 3.6 months of inventory available in our marketplace, which is down from last month when we had roughly 4 months of inventory available. This shift in favour of sellers is due to an increase in buyer traffic in January and a negligible increase in new listings.


MOI data for residential properties, freeholds, and condos, can be found in the chart below.



Last year in context


As expected, 2023 marked the first drop in annualized average prices since 1996. 2023 was also the largest single year-over-year drop in prices since we started keeping records for individual cities in 1956.


The historical average price of a home in Ottawa since 1956 can be found in the chart below.



What This Means for You


It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!


Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.


* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.



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