Whether you're looking to buy or contemplating selling your home soon, you're likely wondering what the market has in store for this calendar year. Thankfully, there is no shortage of industry experts ready to weigh on Canada's real estate market as we roll into 2024. To save you from scouring the internet for these forecasts, we've collected and summarized the most reputable sources here.
TL;DR: Overall, sales volume in Canada is expected to rise by 5.2% to 9%. Average prices are expected to rise by 0.5% to 5%, depending on who you ask.
Read on for a collection of the industry's best predictions for our market in the coming year.
Note: Institutions do not report on all of the same metrics. Some institutions solely forecast price, while others also forecast sales volume. Some institutions solely report on national forecasts, while others drill down to the municipal level. Keep this in mind while reviewing these reports (and news headlines more generally).
The Canadian Real Estate Associate ("CREA")
Published date: October 13, 2023
Canada Sales Volume: + 9%
Canada Average Prices: + 1.5%
Ontario Sales Volume: + 10.8%
Ontario Average Price: + 0.2%
"National home sales are forecast to rebound by 9% to 490,257 units in 2024 as interest rates get closer to, and eventually start, trending down and housing markets make a turn back towards their long-term trends. This forecast would place activity close to the pre-pandemic 10-year average, below levels recorded in 2007, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022."
Royal LePage Canada
Published Date: December 14, 2023
Canada Average Price: + 5.5%
Ottawa Average Price: + 4.5%
“The Ottawa market is heavily influenced by interest rates. Even if we see only a modest decrease in rates by the Bank of Canada mid-way through 2024, this move could spark a flurry of buying activity leading into our late summer and early fall market.”
RE/MAX Canada
Published Date: November 28, 2023
Canada Average Price: + 0.5%
Ottawa Average Price: + 2%
“The slower market we’ve been experiencing across the country [earlier] this fall could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the balancing of conditions in several regions across the country.”
RBC Economics
Published Date: December 20, 2023
Canada Sales Volume: + 8.9%
Canada Average Prices: + 2.2%
"The good news is the latest bout of housing affordability deterioration has likely run its course and the third quarter will prove to be the cyclical-worst point for RBC’s affordability measure. We see the situation improving from now on as home prices drift lower or stabilize in the majority of markets, and household income continue to grow at a solid pace. The trend will become even friendlier once the Bank of Canada starts cutting rates—around mid-year in our view." (link to Housing Trends and Affordability Report)
TD Economics
Published Date: September 2023
Canada Sales Volume: + 5.2%
Canada Average Prices: + 0.5%
Ontario Sales Volume: + 3%
Ontario Average Prices: - 0.5%
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