top of page
  • Writer's pictureThomas Desjardins

December 2022: Ottawa Real Estate Market Update



Ottawa Real Estate Market in Context


As 2022 draws to a close, we have begun to see some stability in average sale prices in Ottawa, though available inventory numbers remain high year-over-year. Despite the downward correction we've seen in 2022, both REMAX and Royal LePage are projecting price increases through the second half of 2023. While many factors contribute to current real estate market conditions, the three big banks project that overnight rates have peaked at 4.25%, with a possible quarter-point increase this month. Interest rates have been a core factor dissuading buyers from entering the market, as evidenced by the double-digit decrease in sales volume, so interest rate stability may signal a turning point in our market. Let's take a look at some core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for December 2022.


Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)

  • Residential unit sales: 593 (-29.15%)

  • Freehold unit sales: 458 (-20.76%)

  • Condo unit sales: 135 (-47.88%)

* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.


In December, the pace of home sales remained significantly lower compared to the busy market we experienced last year. We expect sales volume to remain slow through early-mid winter until buyers return to their house hunts through January and into spring.


The graph below shows monthly sold unit data over the last four years.



Average Prices

  • The average sale price for freehold property in December was $655,806, a decrease of 7.51% from 2021.

  • The average sale price for a condominium-class property in December was $433,874, an increase of 8.53% from 2021.

Month-over-month, average overall (freehold and condo) sale prices fell by 2.51% since November of this year. The table below shows month-over-month price change data for 2022 to date. The next graph shows monthly average sale price data for freehold and condo properties since the beginning of 2019, grouped by calendar year.

Month (2022)

Price

% Change

January

$680,276

10.92%

February

$750,496

10.32%

March

$758,969

1.13%

April

$739,583

-2.55%

May

$718,998

-2.78%

June

$686,752

-4.48%

July

$649,602

-5.41%

August

$635,982

-2.10%

September

$644,905

1.40%

October

$624,692

-3.13%

November

$620,889

-0.61%

December

$605,282

-2.51%



Active Listings by Month


At the end of December, there were 2,287 homes available in Ottawa on Realtor.ca, representing a 743-unit decrease from November.


This marks the third consecutive month where available inventory has declined. A decrease in active listings is typical this time of year since many sellers suspend their listings or elect to wait until the new year to go to market. Despite waning supply, active listings are still 3.5x higher than this time last year. This means that there are more opportunities for buyers, and also underscores the need for a strong marketing plan for sellers to differentiate from the competition. The chart below shows the active listing data by month since 2019.



Days on Market


The term "days on market" refers to the number of days that a home is listed for sale before it is purchased.


Last month, a home took 39 days to sell, on average. This is up from December 2021 when homes sold in 24 days. Days on market data since 2019 can be found in the table below.


Months of Inventory


The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. It is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.

  • A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.

  • A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.

  • A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.

In December 2022, residential-class properties increased to 3.7 months from 0.9 months in 2021. Condominium-class properties increased to 3.9 months from 0.9 months in 2021. Ottawa is now, for all intents and purposes, in a balanced market.


Historical Average Home Prices in Ottawa (1956-2021)



What This Means for You


It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, please feel free to get in touch.


* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.



41 views0 comments

댓글


bottom of page