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  • Writer's pictureThomas Desjardins

August 2023: Ottawa Real Estate Market Update

Updated: Sep 11, 2023



August 2023 Market Summary


Last month, sales volume continued to outpace the numbers we saw this time last year, though sales remained slower than the five-year average for August. Average prices fell by a significant margin month-over-month, though early indicators from September suggest this will be short-lived. The number of active listings continued to increase and the average amount of time it took to sell a house also rose from both a month-over-month and year-over-year perspective. Months of inventory ("MOI") expanded slightly, though for the time being we remain in a seller's market.


Let's take a look at some of the core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.


Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)

  • Residential unit sales: 1,190 (+5.4%)

  • Freehold unit sales: 895 (+6.2%)

  • Condo unit sales: 295 (+3.2%)

* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.


Last month, 5.4% more homes were sold in Ottawa as compared to August of last year. This increase is not surprising given that we have now caught up to the market shock we experienced from rate hikes in the early part of 2022. From a short-term perspective, August slowed relative to July by roughly 5.6%, which is typical for this time of year. While sales volume appears stable year-over-year, 2023 has been a slow year for Ottawa's housing market. In fact, 22% fewer homes have traded hands so far in 2023 compared to the 5-year rolling average for total annual sales by the end of August.


The graph below shows monthly sales volume data grouped by month since 2018.


Average Sale Prices (year-over-year)

  • Residential properties: $640,148 (+0.9%)

  • Freehold properties: $710,769 (+0.4%)

  • Condo properties: $426,187 (+1.0%)

Average prices came in more or less equal in August compared to this month last year (+0.9%), while month-over-month prices fell by a significant margin (-5.9%).


The table below shows month-over-month price change data for the last 12 months. The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018.

Month

Price

% Change

August 2022

$635,982

-2.10%

September

$644,905

1.40%

October

$624,692

-3.13%

November

$620,889

-0.61%

December

$605,282

-2.51%

January 2023

$611,504

1.03%

February

$632,906

3.60%

March

$635,492

0.41%

April

$679,239

6.88%

May

$672,055

-1.06%

June

$671,212

-0.13%

July

$680,322

1.36%

August 2023

$640,148

-5.91%



Active Listings by Month


At the end of July, there were 3,455 homes available for sale in Ottawa, representing a 107-unit increase from the previous month. Inventory has returned to the levels we saw at this time last year, which is good news for buyers who are looking for a wider selection of properties to choose from.


The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.



Cumulative Days on Market


Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property is conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.


Last month, a home took 43 days to sell, on average. This number is up from July when homes sold in 38 days.


CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.



Months of Inventory


The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.

  • A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.

  • A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.

  • A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.

In August 2023, there were 2.9 months of inventory available in our marketplace. This is up from last month when we had roughly 2.7 months of inventory available. Slow buyer activity is the main cause of this shift in the balance between supply and demand, but we expect this to stabilize through September as buyers return from summer vacations.


This is illustrated in the chart below, which shows MOI data by month since 2014.




What This Means for You


It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!


Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.


* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.



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