top of page
  • Writer's pictureThomas Desjardins

April 2023: Ottawa Real Estate Market Update

Updated: Jun 8, 2023



Ottawa Real Estate Market in Context


After a slow start to the season, spring has arrived and it has brought a notable shift in the market. Although the number of houses sold compared to recent years is lower, prices have increased for the fourth consecutive month. In fact, average prices have regained 48% of the decrease we saw through 2022.


The average number of days it takes to sell a property and the demand-to-supply ratio have both fallen sharply, indicating a shift back to a seller's market. However, it remains unclear whether this upward trend will continue, as recent years have seen a calmer market through the warmer months of summer.


Let's take a look at some of the core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.


Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)

  • Residential unit sales: 1,471 (-20.9%)

  • Freehold unit sales: 1,145 (-18.0%)

  • Condo unit sales: 326 (-29.6%)

* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.



Average Sale Prices

  • Residential properties: $679,239 (-8.1%)

  • Freehold properties: $748,025 (-9.6%)

  • Condo properties: $437,644 (-7.8%)

Average prices rose sharply in April with a 6.9% increase over March. Prices have risen by 12% since December regaining 48% of the decrease we saw through 2022. The arrival of spring, stable overnight rates, and a decrease in the perceived risk of recession are likely the main cause of warming market trends.


The table below shows month-over-month price change data for the last 12 months. The following graph shows monthly average sale price data since 2018.

Month

Price

% Change

April 2022

$739,583

-2.55%

May

$718,998

-2.78%

June

$686,752

-4.48%

July

$649,602

-5.41%

August

$635,982

-2.10%

September

$644,905

1.40%

October

$624,692

-3.13%

November

$620,889

-0.61%

December

$605,282

-2.51%

January 2023

$611,504

1.03%

February

$632,906

3.60%

March

$635,492

0.41%

April 2023

$679,239

6.88%



Active Listings by Month


At the end of March, there were 2,714 homes available for sale in Ottawa representing a 39-unit decrease from the previous month. This suggests that buyers are re-entering the market more quickly than sellers this spring, but as May unfolds, we expect to see an uptick in listings, albeit with a significant influx of buyer activity as well.


The chart below shows the active listing data for the last 5 years.



Cumulative Days on Market


Cumulative days on market ("CDOM") refers to the total number of days a home is available for sale before it is sold firm. CDOM includes the time that a property spends conditionally sold or the time that the property is available before being canceled and re-listed.


Last month, a home took 42 days to sell, on average. This number is down from March when homes sold in 52 days. CDOM has now fallen by 28 days since the peak in January.


CDOM data since 2018 can be found in the table below.



Months of Inventory


The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. This measure is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.

  • A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.

  • A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.

  • A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.

In April 2023, the buyer vs listing balance shifted significantly from its peak of 3.9 MOI in December to 1.9 months of inventory available last month. While supply is less constrained than a year ago, the last three months have seen the market sway quickly back in favour of sellers. As a result bidding wars have returned in certain areas of the market where attractive available listings are particularly hard to come by.


This is illustrated in the chart below, which shows MOI data by month since 2014.





What This Means for You


It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, we would love to help!


Give us a call at 613-614-2999 for your no-obligation consultation.


* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.



67 views0 comments
bottom of page