Ottawa Real Estate Market in Context
As we move towards Ottawa's slow season in real estate, we have begun to see some stability in prices, however, available inventory numbers remain high for this time of year. Let's take a look at some core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for November.
Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)
* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.
In November, The pace of home sales remained significantly lower compared to the unusually active market we experienced last year. We expect the market to remain subdued through early-mid winter given the holiday season. While fewer listings are typically available through December and January, these months are often a good opportunity for buyers since sellers with homes listed during winter are often especially motivated to sell.
The graph below shows monthly sold unit data over the last four years.
The average sale price for a condominium-class property in November was $415,533, a decrease of 4.24% from 2021.
The average sale price for a residential-class property in November was $680,031, a decrease of 5.32% from 2021.
Month-over-month average overall (freehold and condo) residential sale prices remained effectively unchanged -- falling by 0.61% since October of this year. The table below shows month-over-month price change data for 2022 to date. The subsequent graph shows monthly average sale price data for freehold and condo properties since the beginning of 2019, grouped by calendar year.
* NEW * Active Listings by Month
At the end of November, there were 3,030 homes available in Ottawa on Realtor.ca representing a 300-unit decrease from October.
This marks the second consecutive month where available inventory has declined. A decrease in active listing volume is typical this time of year since fewer sellers are inclined to list before the holidays, and active listings are suspended, canceled, or expire. Despite waning supply, active listings remain higher than in recent years. This means that there are more opportunities for buyers while underscoring the need for a strong marketing plan for sellers to differentiate from the competition. The chart below shows the active listing data by month since 2019.
Days on Market
The term "days on market" refers to the number of days that a home is listed for sale before it is purchased.
Last month, a home took 30 days to sell, on average. This is up from this time last November when homes sold in 21 days. Though year-over-numbers are up, the amount of time it takes to sell a home in Ottawa has remained relatively stable since September. Days on market data since 2019 can be found in the table below.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. It is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.
A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.
A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.
In November 2022, residential-class properties increased to 3.5 months from 0.9 months in 2021. Condominium-class properties increased to 3.4 months from 1.1 months in 2021. Ottawa technically remains a seller's market for the time being, though that is expected to change through 2023.
Historical Average Home Prices in Ottawa (1956-2021)
What This Means for You
It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, please feel free to get in touch.
* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.